1
Sugar Reign
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 81
Santa Anita · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 70/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 06/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |