5
Union Heiress
5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 5 · OR 66
Santa Anita · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength12%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 10/11/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 29/12/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |