3

Surfin The Coast

3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 84

Santa Anita · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

89%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Santa Anita 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f Fas 1202/05C9C7 @ Santa Anita 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 81 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 81 par14/06C7OR 81C7 @ Del Mar 23/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 87 · 5f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 87 par23/07C7OR 87projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Del Mar?7th6th+1
2026-06-14Santa Anita?4th3rd+1
2026-05-02Santa Anita?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0514/0623/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 55/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -15.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
14/06/20264th5/174%57%-0.17
23/07/20267th14/126%14%-0.12