
Surfin The Coast
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 84
Santa Anita · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
89%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -15.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |