IvyArcIvyArc
3

Duty Bound

2yo Filly · 8-5 · Draw 3 · OR 87

Santa Anita · Race 4 - Zuma Beach Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -4.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 26/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 11926/07C6C5 @ Kentucky Downs 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 77 · 6f110y Fm 120 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 77 par29/08C5OR 77projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 2
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Kentucky Downs?1st6th−4
2026-07-26Colonial Downs?1st8th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
29/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21