Shortman
7yo Horse · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 91
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Del Mar | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 14/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 22/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 27/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |