2
Dash
2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 78
Santa Anita · Race 6 - Surfer Girl Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲4
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: -3.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-08-09 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 11th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 29/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -10.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |