5
Vanta
2yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 95
Santa Anita · Race 6 - Surfer Girl Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
2/5
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -4.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength94%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |