3
Melchior Du Large
4yo Gelding · 10-7
Strasbourg · Prix Du Conseil De L'europe Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Auteuil | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Clairefontaine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Dieppe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Clairefontaine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Dieppe | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 63/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength79%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 59% | +0.59 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 92% | +0.03 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 69% | -0.21 |