2
Philadelphie
4yo Filly · 10-10
Strasbourg · Prix Du Conseil De L'europe Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 3
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Clairefontaine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Dieppe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Pau | 1 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-01-04 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 77/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength95%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 01/12/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 04/01/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 18/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 92% | +0.37 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 62% | -0.17 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |