5
Bonita De La Serre
6yo Mare · 10-7
Strasbourg · Prix D'auteuil Chase · 2m 4f 193y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 1.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-17 | Clairefontaine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-10-22 | Nancy | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-08-19 | Clairefontaine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2024-07-01 | Clairefontaine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-05-09 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-01-25 | Pau | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 79/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2024 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 25/01/2024 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 09/05/2024 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 01/07/2024 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 86% | +0.44 |
| 19/08/2024 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 22/10/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 17/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |