3
Fireman
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 9
Strasbourg · Prix Les Entrepreneurs - Cpme Du Bas-rhin (prix De La Moder) Handicap · 6f 211y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Strasbourg | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Vichy | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nantes | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Nantes | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength45%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 14/04/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 83% | +0.78 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 29/05/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 16/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 20/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |