Karinas Dream

7yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 6

Strasbourg · Prix Les Entrepreneurs - Cpme Du Bas-rhin (prix De La Moder) Handicap · 6f 211y

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

10%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C3.3

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-16	Strasbourg	4	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-05-21	ParisLongchamp	4	10th	10th	0	1.0
2026-05-03	ParisLongchamp	3	13th	12th	+1	1.0
2026-04-16	ParisLongchamp	3	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-02-09	Cagnes-sur-Mer	3	10th	9th	+1	1.2
2026-01-27	Cagnes-sur-Mer	3	11th	10th	+1	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 7-12 · tight 69/100

▬ EDGING AHEAD

Trend▬

Strength1%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
03/12/2025	7th	25/1	0%	54%	+0.54
12/01/2026	13th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
17/01/2026	8th	7/1	63%	46%	-0.17
27/01/2026	11th	14/1	26%	9%	-0.17
09/02/2026	10th	18/1	5%	36%	+0.30
16/04/2026	3rd	11/1	42%	83%	+0.41
03/05/2026	13th	13/2	66%	20%	-0.46
21/05/2026	10th	12/1	37%	10%	-0.27
16/06/2026	7th	18/1	5%	57%	+0.52