Karafon
6yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 122
Strasbourg · Prix Mid Dancer Hurdle · 2m 1f 196y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Dieppe | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Perth | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Downpatrick | BHA120 | 6th | 16th | −8 |
| 2026-02-16 | Carlisle | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-20 | Down Royal | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Ayr | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 54% | -0.15 |
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 22/11/2025 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 20/01/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 17% | -0.39 |
| 16/02/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |