Libeccio
7yo Gelding · 10-10
Strasbourg · Prix Mid Dancer Hurdle · 2m 1f 196y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-25 | Auteuil | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-05-28 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-05-13 | Compiegne | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2024-04-06 | Auteuil | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-03-03 | Auteuil | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2023-11-26 | Auteuil | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/2023 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 27/06/2023 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 08/10/2023 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 26/11/2023 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 03/03/2024 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 06/04/2024 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 13/05/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 28/05/2024 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |
| 25/06/2024 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |