15
Tharpe
5yo Gelding · 8-4 · Draw 7
Strasbourg · Prix Agriteam (prix Richard Hartley) Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Strasbourg | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Vittel | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Strasbourg | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Strasbourg | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Strasbourg | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Strasbourg | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1571% of fieldRange 6-16 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 77% | +0.16 |
| 02/03/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 55% | -0.22 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 79% | -0.11 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 19/07/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.38 |
| 20/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |