13
Vallando
8yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 13
Strasbourg · Prix Agriteam (prix Richard Hartley) Handicap · 1m 1f 207y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Vittel | 4 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Nancy | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Nancy | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Nancy | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 39/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 24/10/2025 | 12th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 11/11/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 77% | -0.02 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 86% | +0.30 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 54% | -0.09 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.66 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 22/06/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 19/07/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 46% | -0.17 |