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The Gray Ghost

7yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 120

Uttoxeter · F Ball Stick With It Chasing Excellence Beginners' Chase (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 214y

#2

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled hurdles tally at Newcastle in February and shaped as though in good form when hitting the frame both starts during the spring. Has the size for chasing so no surprise were he to up his game.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Kempton 15/03/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 121 · 2m5f Gd 153 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/03/2025 · OR 121 par15/032OR 1214 @ Kelso 05/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 120 · 2m4f189y Gd 168 · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 120 par2 @ Aintree 26/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 120 · 2m4f GS 149 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/10/2025 · OR 120 par26/102OR 1204 @ Wincanton 04/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 118 · 1m7f50y Goo 168 · below its mark04/12/2025 · OR 118 par3 @ Ascot 19/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 116 · 2m5f146y Sft 157 · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 116 par19/123OR 1162 @ Musselburgh 01/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 117 · 2m7f180y GS 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/02/2026 · OR 117 par3 @ Newcastle 21/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 117 · 2m190y GS 165 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 117 par21/023OR 1172 @ Kempton 14/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 120 · 2m5f Goo 148 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 120 par3 @ Ayr 17/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 120 · 2m Sft 168 · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 120 par17/043OR 120projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-17Ayr34th4th0
2026-03-14Kempton24th3rd+1
2026-02-21Newcastle31st1st0
2026-02-01Musselburgh24th3rd+1
2025-12-19Ascot34th4th0
2025-12-04Wincanton45th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/034/1221/0217/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 350% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength89%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 3. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/20257th16/116%33%+0.18
05/10/20256th11/271%29%-0.42
26/10/20254th18/15%40%+0.35
04/12/20255th20/10%56%+0.56
19/12/20254th7/282%73%-0.09
01/02/20264th13/266%75%+0.09
21/02/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
14/03/20264th12/137%75%+0.38
17/04/20264th7/163%79%+0.15