3
Captain Connor
4yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 79
Uttoxeter · Chloe Mediumship Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-09-20 | Plumpton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Stratford | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Market Rasen | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength45%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 16/12/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 22/01/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 14% | +0.09 |
| 20/09/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 01/10/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |