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In The Trenches

6yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 115

Uttoxeter · Chloe Mediumship Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 7f 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

15/8

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

96%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Belatedly opened account in 19f Downpatrick maiden hurdle in June and having left one good yard for another, he travelled powerfully tackling 3m for the first time (fitted with a tongue tie) when landing 3-runner handicap chase at Warwick 12 days ago. Penalty to carry but unexposed over this trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲5
Strength5%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -4.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA115 @ Navan 14/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 115 · 2m Sft 161 · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 115 par14/12115OR 115C8 @ Tramore 19/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 112 · 1m7f110y Yie 161 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 112 parBHA112 @ Wexford 07/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 112 · 2m Goo 168 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 112 par7/05112OR 112BHA111 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 111 · 2m4f90y Gd 166 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 111 parC8 @ Clonmel 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 108 · 2m113y Goo 158 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 108 par5/06C8OR 108C8 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 108 · 2m2f185y Gd 166 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 108 parBHA110 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 110 · 2m2f200y Gd 166 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 110 par24/07110OR 110BHA108 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 108 · 2m1f Goo 158 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 108 par4 @ Warwick 22/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 112 · 3m Goo 160 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 112 par22/094OR 112projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Warwick41st1st0
2026-08-03CorkBHA1087th15th−7
2026-07-24KilbegganBHA1104th12th−7
2026-06-30WexfordBHA108−7
2026-06-14Downpatrick?1st6th−4
2026-06-05Clonmel?2nd7th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/1215/0524/0722/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/12/20258th16/116%36%+0.21
19/04/20265th15/261%43%-0.18
07/05/20265th10/147%64%+0.16
15/05/20265th10/147%69%+0.22
05/06/20262nd5/287%93%+0.06
14/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
24/07/20264th11/142%67%+0.25
03/08/20267th28/10%40%+0.40
22/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13