5
Analogical
4yo Gelding · 11-3
Uttoxeter · F Ball 140th Anniversary Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1) · 1m 7f 168y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Goodwood | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Catterick | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thirsk | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 20% | -0.70 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 85/40 | 89% | 17% | -0.72 |
| 01/07/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |