2
Governors Rock
5yo Gelding · 11-4
Uttoxeter · F Ball 140th Anniversary Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1) · 1m 7f 168y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +3.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Aintree | 1 | 15th | 11th | +4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Newbury | 1 | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-09-12 | Ballinrobe | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-24 | Wexford | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Bellewstown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength86%
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 46% | +0.30 |
| 24/07/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 07/02/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/04/2026 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |