6
Rose Warrior
4yo Gelding · 11-3
Uttoxeter · F Ball 140th Anniversary Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1) · 1m 7f 168y
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Bangor-on-Dee | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 6 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-04-25 | Southwell | 6 | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2025-10-14 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-09-29 | Southwell | 6 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength20%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/05/2025 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 29/08/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 29/09/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 25/04/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 10% | -0.32 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 07/07/2026 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 250/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |