7
Troy Story
4yo Gelding · 11-3
Uttoxeter · F Ball 140th Anniversary Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1) · 1m 7f 168y
#6
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Worcester | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Lingfield | 6 | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-01-07 | Kempton | 6 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-12-12 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 76/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength0%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 05/07/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 23/07/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 03/11/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 24/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 12/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 07/01/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 64% | -0.02 |
| 24/01/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 10/09/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |