Ernest Gray
9yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 126
Uttoxeter · F Ball Established 1886 Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
23%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Bangor-on-Dee | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Market Rasen | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Uttoxeter | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Haydock | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Haydock | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Aintree | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 16/08/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 26/10/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |