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5

Miss Goldfire

7yo Mare · 11-6 · OR 119

Uttoxeter · F Ball Established 1886 Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 70y

#4

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won juvenile handicap/runner-up to a subsequent winner on previous 2 C&D starts. An improved model as a 7-y-o this season. Hard held completing a double at Newton Abbot and only beaten by an unexposed stayer played later over C&D last time. Needs more again off another career-high mark, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Fontwell 25/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 103 · 2m5f164y Goo 156 · beat its mark25/04/2025 · OR 103 par25/044OR 1035 @ Uttoxeter 17/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 103 · 2m7f70y Gd 168 · beat its mark17/05/2025 · OR 103 par4 @ Uttoxeter 05/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 111 · 2m7f70y Gd 156 · below its mark05/06/2025 · OR 111 par5/064OR 1112 @ Cheltenham 25/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 111 · 2m7f208y Goo 152 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 111 par4 @ Ascot 22/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 111 · 3m102y GS 164 · below its mark22/11/2025 · OR 111 par22/114OR 1114 @ Wincanton 16/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 109 · 2m3f179y Sft 168 · below its mark16/12/2025 · OR 109 par5 @ Fontwell 06/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 103 · 2m5f164y Goo 168 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 103 par6/055OR 1034 @ Newton Abbot 03/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 108 · 3m2f105y Gd 161 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 108 par2 @ Uttoxeter 28/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 116 · 2m7f70y Goo 151 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 116 par28/062OR 116projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-28Uttoxeter22nd1st+1
2026-06-03Newton Abbot41st2nd−1
2026-05-24Fontwell4−1
2026-05-06Fontwell51st3rd−2
2026-03-23Wincanton4−1
2025-12-16Wincanton46th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0425/106/0528/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
17/05/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
05/06/20252nd11/1094%67%-0.28
25/10/20258th10/147%42%-0.06
22/11/20258th9/153%13%-0.40
16/12/20256th14/126%38%+0.11
06/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
03/06/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
28/06/20262nd4/179%89%+0.10