Roger Pol
8yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 121
Uttoxeter · F Ball Established 1886 Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Bangor-on-Dee | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | 2 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Uttoxeter | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Cartmel | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Plumpton | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Hexham | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 07/07/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 26/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |