11
Northern Rose
6yo Mare · 10-11 · OR 81
Uttoxeter · F Ball Yellow Bucket Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 168y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Bangor-on-Dee | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Stratford | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Stratford | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Stratford | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 27/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 16/06/2026 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 27% | -0.58 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |