6
Ghasham
7yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 102
Uttoxeter · F Ball Centre Of Excellence Handicap Chase · 1m 7f 214y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Cartmel | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Market Rasen | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Cartmel | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Hexham | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Cartmel | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Hexham | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 25/01/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 16/03/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 20% | -0.73 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |