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7

Playful Fox

4yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 104

Uttoxeter · F Ball Centre Of Excellence Handicap Chase · 1m 7f 214y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

73%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved over hurdles this summer, scoring (over 2m) at Stratford and Newton Abbot. Not discredited given he was set a lot to do when fifth of 6 at Bangor (17f, good) last time. Very much one to consider starting out over fences.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Bangor-on-Dee 12/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m145y Sft 154 · HIGHER CLASS12/1144 @ Haydock 30/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 1m7f144y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Catterick 30/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 98 · 1m7f156y Sft 155 · below its mark30/01/2026 · OR 98 par30/015OR 985 @ Worcester 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 96 · 2m Gd 164 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 96 par5 @ Worcester 28/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 96 · 2m4f Gd 156 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 96 par28/055OR 964 @ Stratford 29/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 99 · 2m70y Goo 152 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 99 par4 @ Worcester 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 102 · 2m Gd 156 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 102 par22/074OR 1024 @ Newton Abbot 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 105 · 2m167y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 105 par4 @ Bangor-on-Dee 08/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 105 · 2m145y Gd 163 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 105 par8/094OR 105projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Bangor-on-Dee45th4th+1
2026-08-22Newton Abbot41st0th+1
2026-07-22Worcester42nd1st+1
2026-06-29Stratford41st0th+1
2026-05-28Worcester54th4th0
2026-05-22Worcester52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1122/0522/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength59%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/11/20253rd3/184%71%-0.13
30/12/20254th8/158%40%-0.18
30/01/20265th7/491%0%-0.91
22/05/20262nd7/491%80%-0.11
28/05/20264th6/594%63%-0.31
29/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
22/07/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04
22/08/20261st2/1399%100%+0.01
08/09/20265th3/184%20%-0.64