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10

Tropical Talent

7yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 80

Uttoxeter · F Ball Centre Of Excellence Handicap Chase · 1m 7f 214y

#9

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

It's now thirteen runs since his last victory but he signalled he is ready to go in again when second of 8 in handicap chase at Sedgefield (2m, good) 25 days ago, collared only late on having made an error at the last. Weighted to go one better.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 03/10/2024 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 84 · 1m7f182y Goo 152 · below its mark03/10/2024 · OR 84 par3/105OR 845 @ Uttoxeter 18/10/2024 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 88 · 1m7f168y GS 151 · below its mark18/10/2024 · OR 88 par5 @ Sedgefield 05/11/2024 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 86 · 2m178y Gd 150 · below its mark05/11/2024 · OR 86 par5/115OR 865 @ Huntingdon 19/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 82 · 2m104y Gd 150 · below its mark19/03/2025 · OR 82 par5 @ Hereford 10/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 81 · 2m8y Goo 163 · beat its mark10/04/2025 · OR 81 par10/045OR 815 @ Worcester 06/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 81 · 2m110y Gd 149 · below its mark06/05/2025 · OR 81 par5 @ Bangor-on-Dee 06/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 80 · 2m145y Gd 148 · beat its mark06/06/2025 · OR 80 par6/065OR 806 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 55 · 1m6f21y Std 139 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 55 par5 @ Sedgefield 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 77 · 2m77y Goo 149 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 77 par9/095OR 77projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Sedgefield52nd2nd0
2026-08-31Southwell64th5th−1
2025-06-06Bangor-on-Dee52nd2nd0
2025-05-06Worcester55th5th0
2025-04-10Hereford52nd2nd0
2025-03-19Huntingdon53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1019/036/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength81%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/10/20247th13/266%40%-0.26
18/10/20248th28/10%46%+0.46
05/11/20247th9/488%40%-0.48
19/03/20253rd7/491%50%-0.41
10/04/20252nd15/890%83%-0.07
06/05/20255th7/282%43%-0.39
06/06/20252nd10/382%83%+0.01
31/08/20264th66/10%40%+0.40
09/09/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00