Crumlin Fashion
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 71
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 22/11/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 06/06/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 17/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |