4
Mckenzie Road
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 77
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 14/11/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |