2
Serenading Amaya
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 72
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength65%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 20/08/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 10/09/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |