3
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5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 85
Woodbine · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 09/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 01/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 44% | -0.29 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |