Humormeastory

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 93

Woodbine · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 7f 110y

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARK

Move▼1

Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 1.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.5

Today:

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Fort Erie	?	2nd	0th	+2	5.0
2026-07-26	Woodbine	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2026-07-05	Woodbine	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-06-07	Woodbine	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 61/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength61%

Delivery trend -23.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/06/2026	3rd	33/1	0%	80%	+0.80
05/07/2026	1st	9/2	76%	100%	+0.24
26/07/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32
07/09/2026	2nd	7/4	91%	89%	-0.02