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6

Reload Raleigh

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 6 · OR 86

Woodbine · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 7f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

79%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Woodbine 06/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS6/07C6C7 @ Woodbine 14/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 49 · 6f Fas 118 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 49 par14/09C7OR 49C5 @ Woodbine 19/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 69 · 7f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/10/2025 · OR 69 par19/10C5OR 69C5 @ Woodbine 23/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/11/2025 · OR 73 par23/11C5OR 73C5 @ Woodbine 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 81 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 81 par17/05C5OR 81projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-17Woodbine?3rd1st+2
2025-11-23Woodbine?2nd0th+2
2025-10-19Woodbine?1st-1th+2
2025-09-14Woodbine?1st1st0
2025-07-06Woodbine?8th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0714/0919/1023/1117/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +20.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/07/20258th9/153%0%-0.53
14/09/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
19/10/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
23/11/20252nd10/382%88%+0.05
17/05/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51