Thundermaker
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 9 · OR 90
Woodbine · Race 10 - Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 05/10/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |