4
Beach Factor
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 74
Woodbine · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 3f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |