1
Beyond Adversity
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 80
Woodbine · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 3f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-06-08 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 83/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2024 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 15/11/2024 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 08/12/2024 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 08/06/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |