5
No Hay Dos
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 5 · OR 83
Woodbine · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 3f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-01-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 62/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 10/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |