Saratoga Gold

2yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 68

Woodbine · Race 3 - Optional Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength29%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-11	Woodbine	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-08-16	Woodbine	?	8th	7th	+1	2.6
2026-08-08	Woodbine	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-19	Woodbine	?	7th	6th	+1	3.6
2026-06-14	Woodbine	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6
2026-05-17	Woodbine	?	6th	5th	+1	4.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 87/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/05/2026	6th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
14/06/2026	6th	33/1	0%	29%	+0.29
19/07/2026	7th	50/1	0%	40%	+0.40
08/08/2026	2nd	15/2	61%	88%	+0.27
16/08/2026	8th	20/1	0%	13%	+0.13
11/09/2026	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53