6
Can't Jump
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 82
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-08 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength87%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 16/03/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/07/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 08/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 06/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |