1
Shamateur
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength70%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 02/01/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 20/07/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |