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6

Prince Shaman

2yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 6 · OR 71

Woodbine · Race 5 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

62%

Place Prob

47%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f 1189/08C7C5 @ Woodbine 30/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 82 · 6f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 82 par30/08C5OR 82C5 @ Woodbine 13/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 76 · 6f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 76 par13/09C5OR 76projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Woodbine?6th4th+2
2026-08-30Woodbine?8th6th+2
2026-08-09Woodbine?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0830/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 72/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength89%

Delivery trend -3.7% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20263rd9/153%60%+0.07
30/08/20268th25/10%13%+0.13
13/09/20266th25/10%0%0.00