Backstreet Emma
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 85
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
60%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 29/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |