6
Lady On The Nile
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 6 · OR 72
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +13.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 15/11/2025 | 11th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 12/12/2025 | 9th | 5/2 | 87% | 11% | -0.76 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |