1
Nikita's Gem
5yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 1 · OR 87
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-31 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength10%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 07/12/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |