Periwinkle
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 86
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 21/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 30/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |