2
Talent Show
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 2 · OR 88
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 20/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |