6
Really Big Show
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 6 · OR 69
Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 3f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength9%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 14/12/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |